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      <image:caption>Achieving consistency like this is impossible. Just ask this guy’s former clients.</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>Such is life.</image:caption>
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    <loc>https://www.honestmath.com/learn/evolve-already</loc>
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      <image:title>Learn - Why isn’t Monte Carlo Analysis More Common?</image:title>
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    <loc>https://www.honestmath.com/learn/personal-finance-revolution</loc>
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    <lastmod>2021-06-15</lastmod>
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      <image:title>Simulator - Make it stand out</image:title>
      <image:caption>Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.</image:caption>
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      <image:title>Simulator - Serious portfolio simulations for everybody</image:title>
      <image:caption>No sales pitch. No bias. Just the numbers.</image:caption>
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      <image:title>Simulator - Define your goals and simulate thousands of trials</image:title>
      <image:caption>Do your habits align with your plans?</image:caption>
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      <image:title>Simulator - Plan and monitor your nest egg over time</image:title>
      <image:caption>Are you on pace to fund the retirement you’ve pictured?</image:caption>
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      <image:title>Simulator - Simulate extreme market events and “what if” scenarios</image:title>
      <image:caption>How will a market crash impact my plans?</image:caption>
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      <image:title>Simulator - Pop the hood and tweak the statistical settings</image:title>
      <image:caption>Are you a Pessimist? Optimist? Savant? Calibrate the model to your liking.</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.</image:caption>
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      <image:caption>Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.</image:caption>
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      <image:title>User Guide - Median Journey</image:title>
      <image:caption>The pattern of the blue line will change substantially each time the model is refreshed. It’s supposed to. The blue line represents the journey of the single portfolio that ranked at the 50th percentile at the end of the investment horizon. We highlight the unique swings of an individual pathway to illustrate a very important point: serious fluctuations in portfolio value are normal. Remember, the volatility demonstrated by the solid line represents the portfolio with the average (median) ending balance. Under most modeling assumptions, 10,000 trials is sufficiently large to produce significant convergence to the expected portfolio value over time (see ‘Percentile Range’, below). This means that the ending portfolio balance should remain relatively stable for each iteration of the model, assuming no assumptions have changed. However, the pattern of the blue line will change with each run because it reflects the unique volatility of the single trial that ended as the median portfolio. In other words, the destination remains the same, but the path leading there changes with randomness.</image:caption>
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      <image:title>User Guide - Percentile Range</image:title>
      <image:caption>The shape of the shaded area will remain materially unchanged each time the simulation is refreshed. This is a good thing; it means the sample size (10,000 trials) is large enough to produce stochastic convergence. The shaded area is bounded by the 20th percentile (lower) and 80th percentile (upper) portfolio value at every age. The simulation runs 10,000 trials (e.g., 10,000 simulated lifetimes) of investment performance on a monthly basis. The portfolio value for every trial is ranked each month from 1 (worst) to 10,000 (best). Thus, the 20th and 80th percentiles are represented by the 2,000th and 8,000th ranked portfolios at every age. The large sample size results in enough convergence to keep the shape of the shaded area materially unchanged for each iteration of the model, assuming the assumptions also remain unchanged. All figures are shown in current (nominal) dollars. Inflation is reflected through increased living expenditures at the growth rate specified by the user in the "Expenses” tab.</image:caption>
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